The upcoming 2024 Xfinity Series Cabo Wabo 250 at Michigan International Speedway will see drivers contending over 125 laps on the 2-mile track. Based on performance data from similar tracks in the NextGen era and the current season, several key drivers stand out in terms of potential performance.
Cole Custer has consistently shown strong results both seasonally and on similar tracks. In this season, Custer has accumulated 718 points with nine top 5 finishes out of 19 starts, despite an average finish position (AFP) of 8.37. His ARP of 6.69 indicates strong running positions, which is crucial at a high-speed track like Michigan.
Austin Hill has also demonstrated notable performance with 693 points and two wins this season. He has an AFP of 9.21 and an ARP of 7.76. At similar tracks, his ARP improves to 12.46, implying he performs relatively well on long tracks. His AFP on similar tracks aligns closely with his overall performance, showing consistent competitiveness.
Riley Herbst has shown potential with nine top 10 finishes this season and accumulations of 606 points. On similar tracks, he has an ARP of 8.52, which is slightly better than his seasonal ARP of 8.06. However, at Michigan specifically, Herbst has maintained a solid ARP of 7.59, translating this into a more competitive standing.
AJ Allmendinger has secured three top 5 finishes this season and has shown resilience on longer tracks, with a similar track ARP of 11.97. His track-specific ARP at Michigan of 5.10 highlights his adaptability and potential to perform well.
Justin Allgaier has 663 points this season with strong season stats including an ARP of 6.24. On Michigan’s high-speed layout, Allgaier’s specific ARP improves slightly to 6.15. These statistics indicate his ability to maintain leading positions on this track type.
Chandler Smith has two wins and 624 points this season with an AFP of 13.16. His ARP on similar tracks is 13.54, remaining close to his seasonal performance. His track-specific ARP of 11.41 at Michigan suggests he could be competitive here but will need to improve upon his past finishes to break into the top contenders.
Sheldon Creed might also present a strong case with solid performances on similar tracks. Maintaining an ARP of 10.87 on similar tracks aligns closely with his seasonal performance of 11.20 and suggests he could perform consistently at Michigan.
Lastly, John Hunter Nemechek has shown impressive stats with two wins and an AFP of 15.90 this season. However, his ARP of 10.00 at Michigan and his performance on similar tracks indicate he could be a dark horse to watch in the race.
This data underscores the importance of not only season-long performance but also specific adaptability to track characteristics, which will be critical in determining the outcomes at the demanding Michigan International Speedway.